User-oriented evaluation. Deliverable 7.3. Sustainable Energy Transitions Laboratory (SENTINEL) project

In this deliverable, we focus on the third and final step of the overall SENTINEL stakeholder engagement strategy and we aim (a). to present stakeholder feedback on the usefulness of the SENTINEL modelling results for the case studies regarding the improvement of stakeholders’ decision-making as well as recommendations for improved integration of model components, and (ii). to produce a final set of results and lessons learnt after further model application within the case study framework. To meet these objectives, we applied a four-tier participatory multi-method approach consisting of stakeholder interactions in 10 events (workshops, conferences, focus groups, bilateral meetings, etc.), in which SENTINEL modelling teams and more than 90 stakeholders participated. We discussed with stakeholders about 12 model applications to the case studies (9 for the ontinental and 3 for the National case study) to examine the usefulness of our models and modelling results as well as identify modelling gaps requiring further improvements. During the different stakeholder engagement activities, modellers had the chance to receive various perspectives from multiple stakeholders. Discussion topics spanned from general issues related to energy system modelling, like model integration and intercomparison as well as its added value and complementarity with other approaches, to more specific ones, focusing on learning curves for technology costs and infrastructural needs, crucial environmental criteria to be considered, or the behavioural change importance for achieving decarbonisation. Stakeholders also provided useful advice in terms of disseminating and further exploiting modelling results. We also present further modelling refinements that SENTINEL modellers have implemented or planned for providing more useful and policy-relevant implications that can be leveraged by policymakers and civil society. Moreover, we elicit key modelling challenges and lessons learnt based on the model application process to the case studies and reflect on further research areas regarding energy system modelling. One important lesson learnt from our work is that modellers need to put more effort into involving non-technical audiences in the energy modelling process by making sophisticated outputs more understandable to them. This can further enable the mainstreaming of energy system modelling, as stakeholders with no background in this area can also provide feedback on the relevance of modelling and their needs. Furthermore, we also find out that stakeholders with technical background pay close attention to how various models were integrated and how modelling outcomes compare to those of other models when using similar scenario specifications and assumptions. We observe that further research and modelling studies should aim at better capturing the effects of fossil-fuel price uncertainty and eliciting strategic choices about a quicker reduction in the reliance on fossil fuels, particularly Russian oil and gas. In addition, stakeholders are interested in learning how citizen-led energy transition pathways can be realised and consider that people-powered storylines should be further disseminated in energy scenario specifications. Finally, we find out that behavioural change is a critical challenge towards achieving the climate neutral goal.